 |
| EFE |
The results of the Michigan primaries indicate, despite the clear victories of Joe Biden and Donald Trump, that a handful of votes can make either of the two likely candidates lose the presidential elections, as already happened in 2016 and 2020.
In the 2016 presidential elections, Hillary Clinton lost Michigan to Trump by only 10,704 votes. Four years later, Trump was the one defeated in the state and Michigan went to Biden by a difference of 154,188 votes.
With 99% of the scrutiny carried out, the protest vote against Biden in Tuesday's Democratic primaries for his support of Israel and his offensive in the Gaza Strip (where about 30,000 people have died since October 7, 2023) has achieved just over 101,000 votes, around 13% of the ballots cast.
The promoters of the blank vote had indicated that 10% support would be a triumph for the movement.
More: Biden's doctor was satisfied with the results of his annual physical, says White House spokeswoman
Although Biden got 81.1% of the votes on Tuesday, the 101,000 Democrats who punished the president for his policies can be the difference between victory and defeat in the November presidential elections.
The same conclusion can be drawn from the results of the Republican primary. Trump won Michigan, but with a smaller margin than Biden by getting 68.2% of the votes.
His main rival, the former US ambassador to the UN, Nikki Haley, accumulated 26.6% of Republican support, 294,817 votes. And another 3% opted for a blank ballot.
In total, more than 300,000 Republican votes that can be interpreted as a rejection of Trump. And, according to some analysts, the controversial businessman should not count on many of them in November.
These results do not question that Biden or Trump will get enough delegates to secure the nomination of their respective parties, but they raise, as analyst Amy Walter wrote on Wednesday, "how seriously to take the margin of opposition to their candidacies."
Nate Cohn, political analyst for The New York Times, also pointed out on Wednesday that it is evident that what happened in Michigan is a serious problem for Biden: although it is not strange that a high number of Democrats have voted blank, three out of every four voters in Arab communities in the state have rejected the president.
"It is a powerful indication that the Gaza war poses serious political risks to the president," he wrote.
Rick Klein, ABCNews analyst, agreed that the 101,000 Democratic blank votes and the more than 300,000 obtained by Haley in the Republican primary leave Biden and Trump vulnerable in the presidential elections.
"Many in both groups of voters will realign with their parties in November, but independent options and volatile events potentially leave them in the air," he said.
Super Tuesday will show this coming March 5 if the gap opened in Michigan is a local or national problem.
For now, the progressive movement Our Revolution, one of those who promoted the blank vote in Michigan, has issued a serious warning to Biden.
Our Revolution is going to mobilize its 8 million supporters across the country "so that their voices are heard."
Their message, according to its executive director, Joseph Geevarghese, is clear: "Change course now in Gaza or risk alienating key blocks of voters you will need to defeat Trump."
Or as Michigan Democratic Congresswoman Rashida Tlaib (the first Palestinian-American woman to be elected to Congress) pointed out on Tuesday: "The president is not listening to us."
"Listen. Listen to Michigan. Listen to the families who have been directly affected, but also listen to the majority of Americans who are saying: enough," she said after casting her vote.
Because Michigan is not the only state that can go in one direction or another in the presidential elections.
In 2020, Biden won Arizona by just over 10,457 votes, Georgia by 11,779, Wisconsin by about 20,682 and Pennsylvania by 81,660. States that both Biden and Trump will need if they want to win in November.